Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has taken a 51-45 lead over Republican Mike Rogers in the latest Michigan poll, according to a survey of 600 likely voters conducted by Glengariff Group from October 19-22. The Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll, released Wednesday, marks the first time El-Sayed has led in public polling this cycle, with 4% undecided.
The shift includes a 45.5-40% advantage among independents, a demographic Rogers had previously led. Notably, El-Sayed also holds a slight edge in the Upper Peninsula and northern Michigan, regions that have consistently voted Republican in recent elections. A separate Marist University poll released the same day showed El-Sayed ahead 50-48% among 1,185 likely voters.
El-Sayed’s Campaign and Policy Stance
El-Sayed, a physician and former Wayne County public health director, is running to become the first Muslim U.S. senator if elected. His campaign has emphasized healthcare access, economic policy, and criticism of U.S. support for Israel’s war in Gaza as central themes. The Democratic nominee has also positioned himself as a progressive alternative to Rogers, framing the race as a choice between expanding social programs and conservative fiscal policies.
Republican Response and Rogers’ Platform
Rogers, a former U.S. representative, has campaigned on national security, economic growth, and opposition to President Biden’s agenda. His supporters highlight his military background and alignment with Trump-era policies, including skepticism of foreign aid to countries involved in conflicts like Gaza. Rogers has also criticized El-Sayed’s past statements on Israel and associations with progressive figures, including political streamer Hasan Piker.
Cross-Party Endorsements and Voter Shifts
The race has seen unusual cross-party support. Jason Turkish, the Jewish Democratic fiancé of Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), announced he plans to vote for Rogers, citing concerns over El-Sayed’s rhetoric on Israel and ties to controversial figures. Turkish, a disabilities and civil rights attorney, stated that El-Sayed’s positions make him unfit for the Senate in his view.
Conversely, some Michigan voters who backed Trump in 2024 now support El-Sayed, particularly in Dearborn, a majority Arab American city where anger over U.S. policy in Gaza has eroded traditional Democratic support. These voters describe El-Sayed as carrying an “America First” banner, a term historically associated with Trump’s base.
Historical Context and Polling Trends
Michigan has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1994, and Rogers nearly broke that streak in 2024 when he lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than 1%. The current race remains highly competitive, with polls showing margins within the margin of error. Analysts note that El-Sayed’s lead among independents could be a key predictor of the final outcome, as past races in the state have been decided by narrow margins.
Both campaigns have not responded to requests for comment on the latest polling data.