With four days remaining until the midterm elections, election forecasters have adjusted ratings in nine Senate races, all in favor of Democrats, as polling averages tighten in competitive battlegrounds.
Forecasters adjust Senate race ratings amid tightening polls
Inside Elections shifted ratings for nine Senate races on Thursday, including Georgia, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The changes reflect “very strong polls” for Democrats in individual races, according to forecaster Nate Silver. Silver noted on X that the polling trends over the past couple of days have been notably favorable for Democrats, though he acknowledged that polls can be inaccurate and that models, probabilities, and markets account for that uncertainty.
Polling gaps narrow in multiple competitive states
The adjustments come as polling averages show Democrats leading in six of eight toss-up Senate races, according to RealClearPolitics data. Republicans currently lead by 2.7 percentage points in South Carolina, a state previously considered less competitive until a New York Times-Siena College poll this week showed Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) tied with her Democratic challenger, Annie Andrews. Prediction market odds on Polymarket also indicate narrowing gaps in South Carolina, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Kansas, with the Republican advantage in South Carolina dropping from a 56-point gap to 45 points over the past week.
Competitive races expand beyond traditional battlegrounds
The field of competitive Senate races has expanded beyond initial expectations, with Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas now considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report. These states were won by Donald Trump by double-digit margins in 2024, yet polling, advertising spending, and candidate travel have all signaled unexpectedly tight races. In South Carolina, Sen. Graham was appointed to fill the remaining months of her brother Lindsey Graham’s term after his sudden death in July. The race has drawn national attention due to allegations made in a documentary released last week, which included claims from three male escorts regarding Sen. Graham.
Republicans and Democrats stake competing claims on Senate control
Republicans are working to preserve their slim Senate majority, with party officials pointing to concerns about the economy, the ongoing war in Iran, and slipping approval ratings for Trump as factors influencing voter sentiment. Democrats, meanwhile, have highlighted competitive candidates running in deep red and purple states, with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, stating that the party’s candidates are energized and positioned to win in traditionally Republican-leaning areas.
Turnout models and polling accuracy debated
Republicans have questioned the reliability of current polling, citing turnout models and past instances where polls underestimated their candidates. In Michigan, some polls have been exposed as fabrications, though unfavorable legitimate polls remain a point of contention. The debate over polling accuracy has added another layer of uncertainty as voters head to the polls.
Key races to watch
The races in Georgia, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina are among the most closely watched, with forecasters and analysts noting that outcomes in these states could determine control of the Senate. The Cook Political Report rates Georgia’s race as likely Democratic, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, and Iowa as toss-ups, and South Carolina as lean Republican. Nebraska and Mississippi are also among the races that have seen shifts in ratings, reflecting the fluid nature of the electoral landscape.