Republican Representative Byron Donalds holds a 4-point lead over Democratic challenger David Jolly in a new poll of Florida’s gubernatorial race, according to a survey published by The New York Times and Siena University. The poll, released less than one week before the midterm elections, shows Donalds at 48% support compared to Jolly’s 44%.
The survey also indicates a 6-point advantage for Republican Senator Ashley Moody over Democrat Angie Nixon. Republicans have maintained consistent polling leads in Florida, a state that has trended rightward over the past decade despite Democratic efforts to regain competitiveness.
Independent voters favored Jolly 52% to 35%, while 6% of Republicans indicated support for Jolly and 4% of Democrats backed Donalds.
Campaign Events and Mobilization Efforts
Republican figures are intensifying efforts to boost turnout ahead of Tuesday’s election. Donald Trump Jr. is scheduled to join Donalds at a rally in Hialeah, a Miami-area city with a large Cuban American population, on Thursday. The event aims to energize conservative voters in a key demographic region. President Trump is also set to hold a rally in Daytona Beach on Friday as part of a broader push to mobilize the GOP base.
Demographic Challenges and Strategic Priorities
Analysts note that Donalds’ path to victory may depend on maintaining support among older and white voters while improving performance among Hispanic voters and independents. These demographics are seen as critical to securing the state’s traditionally red status.
Both campaigns have been contacted for comment but have not yet issued public responses. The midterm elections will serve as a test of whether Democrats can regain ground in Florida amid national economic concerns and President Trump’s declining approval ratings.