Oil tankers continued transporting nearly 11.1 million barrels per day (bpd) through the Strait of Hormuz in October, despite a record surge in Iranian attacks on commercial vessels. The attacks, which targeted at least 30 ships this month—primarily oil tankers—left 16 seafarers injured and two vessels sunk, according to data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The volume of crude exports remained only 2% lower than September levels, defying predictions of a supply disruption.
Ships transiting the Persian Gulf have faced daily attacks in recent weeks, with October incidents doubling compared to September’s 15 confirmed strikes. Iranian forces have increasingly targeted engine rooms to disable vessels rather than inflict superficial damage, a shift noted by industry officials. Despite the heightened threat, crude prices rose over 13% this month, with Brent crude trading above $117 per barrel—close to its wartime peak of $118.35 in March.
U.S. military intervention bolsters shipping resilience
The U.S. military’s expanded protection operations in the Strait of Hormuz have enabled tankers to maintain near-normal crude flows, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). A statement from CENTCOM highlighted increased vessel traffic and a low percentage of disabled ships as evidence that the U.S. and its regional partners retain control of the waterway. The operations, led by Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM, were described as a key factor in restoring oil exports to pre-war levels after a 90% plunge in March.
However, questions persist about the sustainability of these efforts. Two Western officials and industry sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that the U.S. may struggle to maintain the same level of protection if it resumes heavy strikes on Iranian territory following the U.S. midterm elections. The potential for simultaneous escalations—both in shipping attacks and direct military strikes—raises concerns about the long-term viability of current security measures.
Industry adaptation and economic impact
Shipping trade associations, including BIMCO, have acknowledged the difficult operating environment, with attacks occurring "really on a daily basis." Yet the industry has adapted, implementing enhanced security protocols and rerouting strategies to mitigate risks. The resilience of oil flows has prevented a supply crisis, though the economic strain on insurers and vessel operators remains significant.
Crude oil prices have remained elevated due to the persistent instability, with Brent crude trading at levels unseen since the initial surge in March. The 13% monthly increase reflects market anxiety over the Strait’s security, though actual export volumes have not mirrored the price spike. Analysts suggest the disconnect between prices and flows underscores the market’s uncertainty about future escalations.
Regional and global responses
Gulf allies have welcomed the U.S.-led protection efforts, which they argue have neutralized a key Iranian leverage point. However, the sustainability of these operations remains a point of contention. Some officials question whether the U.S. can sustain dual military commitments—protecting shipping lanes while conducting strikes on Iranian soil—without risking operational strain or further Iranian retaliation.
The IMO’s data on October attacks provides the most comprehensive public accounting of the escalation, though industry sources suggest the true number of incidents may be higher due to underreporting. The two confirmed sinkings this month mark a significant escalation in Iranian tactics, raising concerns about the potential for future disruptions if the trend continues.