Americans head to the polls Tuesday for midterm elections with rising costs and energy prices dominating voter concerns, according to polling and interviews across battleground states. Inflation outpacing wage growth and gas prices surging past $4 per gallon have emerged as central issues in competitive races that will determine control of Congress.
The economy has ranked as the top issue for voters in a recent NBC News Decision Desk Poll, with a majority expressing frustration over economic conditions under President Donald Trump. Across swing states, voters cite higher grocery bills, elevated fuel costs, and increased mortgage rates as primary drivers of financial strain.
Inflation and wage stagnation
Consumer prices rose 3.7% in September, outpacing wage growth of 3% over the same period, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This marks a reversal from early 2025, when paychecks were increasing faster than prices. The shift coincides with the start of the war with Iran on February 28, which triggered sharp increases in energy costs.
Energy prices and transportation
Regular gasoline prices averaged $3.12 per gallon when Trump began his second term, according to AAA. Before the Iran conflict, prices stood at $2.98 per gallon, but they now exceed $4 per gallon—the highest level recorded just before a midterm election. Diesel prices, critical for freight and agriculture, have climbed to above $6 per gallon, up from $3.63 at the start of Trump’s second term and $3.75 before the war.
Mortgage rates have also climbed, with the 30-year fixed rate exceeding 7% in January 2025 before dipping below 6% prior to the Iran conflict. Since then, rates have risen again, with the 30-year fixed rate now well above 7% and the 15-year fixed rate surpassing 6%.
Voter perspectives from swing states
In North Carolina, a key battleground state, voters told the BBC that rising prices are a decisive factor in their voting decisions. The issue has overshadowed other concerns, including immigration and foreign policy, as residents assess their economic well-being ahead of the election.
In Ohio, Republican voter Kristine Cupp said she supports higher gas prices if they contribute to containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “Do you want a country that’s free, or do you want gas and we make sure it’s cheap?” Cupp asked during a Republican event in October. She added that she believes the administration has effectively communicated the threat posed by Iran.
Meanwhile, retiree Stephen Fitz, a former Republican who now identifies as a Democrat, described cutting costs by selling his car and relying on a bicycle. Fitz blamed Trump’s policies for raising the cost of living, saying the economic strain forced him to change his lifestyle.
Economic indicators and long-term trends
Historically, mortgage rates above 7% are not unprecedented, but their current levels—paired with elevated home prices—create affordability challenges for prospective buyers. The combination of high borrowing costs and rising living expenses has contributed to broader economic anxiety, particularly among lower- and middle-income households.
Analysts note that while energy prices have driven much of the recent inflation, broader supply chain and labor market dynamics also play a role. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies, aimed at curbing inflation, have further influenced mortgage rates and borrowing costs across the economy.
As voters cast ballots, the economic landscape remains a defining factor in races that will shape the final two years of Trump’s presidency and set the stage for the 2026 election cycle.