Final polling ahead of the 2026 midterm elections shows Democrats leading in seven competitive Senate races, including in historically Republican strongholds such as Texas and Kansas. The New York Times/Siena University poll, conducted October 23 to November 1, found Democratic candidates ahead in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, with Iowa and Michigan showing tight races. The findings suggest potential gains for Democrats in the upper chamber, though analysts caution that margins remain within the poll's margin of error.
Democrats lead in critical Senate races
In Texas, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico holds a 50% to 43% lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton among likely voters. This represents a significant shift from June, when the race was even. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 44%, a notable development in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Other Republican-held seats showing Democratic momentum include Alaska, where former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola leads Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 46%, and Ohio, where former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 44%.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson holds a 51% to 45% advantage over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, while Iowa’s race is nearly tied, with Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 48% to 47%. Michigan, the only Democratic-held seat surveyed, shows Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers by a double-digit margin.
Forecasting models shift in Democrats' favor
Political forecasting sites have adjusted their projections in response to the polling trends. VoteHub and Decision Desk now give Democrats an 89% and 83% chance, respectively, of taking control of the House, while prediction markets such as Kalshi assign Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and a 71% chance of securing the Senate. The Cook Political Report has also shifted a dozen House races toward Democrats, projecting they could flip 12-25 seats, potentially giving them their largest majority since 2009.
Analysts note that while the trends favor Democrats, the races remain highly competitive. Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, described the polling as "fantastic numbers for Democrats" but cautioned that "they might be wrong again." The polls were conducted among 610 voters in Alaska, 705 in Iowa, 736 in Kansas, 714 in Maine, 1,011 in Michigan, 717 in Ohio, and 1,215 in Texas.
Late-deciding voters favor Republicans, but overall trends remain Democratic
A separate New York Times/Siena poll found that voters who decided their candidate preference in the final month favored Republicans by a nine-point margin. Despite this, the overall polling still shows a Democratic advantage in the seven key Senate races. The discrepancy highlights the uncertainty in the final days of the election cycle, with undecided voters still playing a pivotal role.
In the Southeast, Democrats are also making gains in traditionally Republican states. In Mississippi, District Attorney Scott Colom has mounted a competitive challenge to incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, with the Cook Political Report downgrading the race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican." A recent poll sponsored by Democrats found Hyde-Smith leading by just 3 percentage points. Democrats have increased their campaign efforts in the state, including a visit from former Vice President Kamala Harris, and the Senate Majority PAC has invested $1.2 million in a last-minute ad campaign.
Key races to watch
The outcome of these races could determine control of the Senate, with Vice President JD Vance potentially breaking a tie in the upper chamber. Democrats need to protect their seats while flipping four Republican-held seats to secure a majority. The tight margins in Iowa, Alaska, and Maine underscore the unpredictability of the final results. Political observers emphasize that while the trends are moving in Democrats' favor, the races remain within the margin of error, leaving the possibility of a Republican upset.
The midterms, which conclude on Tuesday, will test the durability of recent polling shifts and determine the political landscape for the remainder of the decade.