President Donald Trump concluded a multi-week campaign blitz with rallies in Iowa and Kansas on November 1, the final weekend before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. The events followed a New York Times/Siena College poll released the same day, which showed Democratic candidates leading in all seven key Senate races that will determine control of Congress.
Trump’s final rallies focused on boosting Republican Senate candidates in competitive races, including Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) in her bid for an open Senate seat and candidates in Kansas. The president also addressed a high-profile endorsement shift in Michigan, where Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) endorsed Republican Senate hopeful Mike Rogers over Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed.
Immediate Developments
Polling shifts and Senate race dynamics
A late-breaking New York Times/Siena College poll indicated that Democratic candidates hold leads in all seven toss-up Senate races, including the two states Trump visited on Sunday. The races include contests in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Washington, where Democrats currently lead by narrow margins. The poll’s findings contradicted Trump’s repeated claims that Republicans were poised for gains.
Trump’s campaign blitz and key endorsements
Trump headlined more than 30 rallies across the country in October, including stops in Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. His final events in Dubuque, Iowa, and Salina, Kansas, were designed to energize Republican turnout in races where polls suggest tight competition. At the Iowa rally, Trump praised Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) for endorsing Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers, calling her decision “very brave.” Stevens, who lost her primary to El-Sayed, cited disagreements over Israel policy as her reason for switching parties.
Republican Strategy and Messaging
Focus on immigration, trade, and economic concerns
Trump’s campaign messaging centered on immigration, trade policies, and economic issues, framing the election as a referendum on his presidency. He warned that a Democratic victory would lead to an “open border,” higher costs, and gun restrictions, while highlighting his administration’s policies as a counter to what he described as a “dark age” under Democratic leadership. Supporters at rallies cheered these remarks, though some Republican strategists have expressed concerns about Trump’s rhetoric alienating moderate voters.
Efforts to counter polling trends
Despite the New York Times/Siena poll’s findings, Trump dismissed predictions of a Democratic wave, asserting that Republican candidates remain competitive in key districts. He pointed to his own campaign rallies as evidence of strong grassroots support, stating, “I have been to the areas where they claim that this race is over. It is not over.” Republican leaders, including Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), predicted their party would retain control of the Senate, arguing that Trump’s agenda remains a defining issue for voters.
State-Specific Races and Competitiveness
Iowa’s tight contests
Iowa, a state Trump won by double digits in 2024, now faces unexpectedly close races for Senate, governor, and all four House districts. Polls show three of the four House races are competitive, and the Senate race between Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D) is rated a “Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report. Trump’s endorsement of Hinson was a focal point of his Iowa rally, where he also joked about her past weight loss, saying, “She was great the other way, but she put herself in shape. And she did that for you.”
Kansas’s unexpectedly close Senate race
Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, is also seeing a surprisingly competitive race. The state’s Senate contest, featuring Republican incumbent Jerry Moran against Democratic challenger Mark Holland, is considered a toss-up in some analyses. Trump’s rally in Salina, Kansas, aimed to shore up support for Moran, who has faced criticism over federal spending and immigration policies.
Election Mechanics and Legal Challenges
Alaska’s unique voting system
In Alaska, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit filed by the Trump administration that sought to block the certification of election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan lost. The state’s ranked-choice voting system and the presence of a second candidate with the same name have added complexity to the race, where Democratic candidate Mary Peltola currently leads in polls.
What’s at Stake
Control of Congress and legislative agendas
All 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are on the ballot. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers. If Democrats win either the House or Senate, they could block Trump’s legislative agenda and launch investigations into his administration. Conversely, a Republican victory would allow Trump to advance his priorities without congressional obstruction.
The midterms will also serve as a barometer for Trump’s political influence ahead of the 2028 presidential election, with both parties framing the contest as a referendum on his policies.