In the final days of the 2026 midterm elections, two major developments have reshaped the electoral landscape: Cook Political Report downgraded a dozen House races toward Democrats, and prediction markets now give Democrats an 89% chance of retaking the House.
House races shift toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report revised its projections on Saturday, moving a dozen House races from Republican-held seats into the Democratic column. The shift suggests Democrats could flip 12 to 25 House seats, potentially securing their largest majority since 2009. Forecasting sites VoteHub and Decision Desk now estimate Democrats’ odds of winning the House at 89% and 83%, respectively. Prediction markets have mirrored this trend, with Kalshi assigning Democrats a 93% chance of winning the House and a 71% chance of taking the Senate.
Senate races tighten across multiple states
While Republicans retain slightly better odds of retaining the Senate, key races in traditionally conservative states have tightened. Polls indicate Democrats are gaining ground in Kansas, South Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Texas, and Ohio. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads in four recent polls, including one from The Washington Post where he held a 9-point lead over Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. Though the Washington Post poll is under review for accuracy, the broader trend shows races within six points in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in over 90 years.
South sees unexpected competition
The American South, long considered a Republican stronghold, has seen unexpectedly close races in states like Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Texas. In Mississippi’s Senate race, incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith’s once-solid lead has narrowed, with a recent Democratic-sponsored poll showing her ahead by just 3 percentage points. The Cook Political Report downgraded the race from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican,” prompting Democrats to invest heavily in the state. Former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for Democratic challenger Scott Colom in Columbus, while the Senate Majority PAC spent $1.2 million on last-minute ads.
National trends and historical context
The shifts come after the South voted decisively for former President Donald Trump in 2024, with double-digit margins in most states. Analysts attribute the current momentum to a combination of national polling trends, campaign spending, and voter sentiment shifts. While Republicans had initially dismissed competitive races in deep-red states like South Carolina and Mississippi, recent data suggests those assumptions may no longer hold.
Key races to watch
- Mississippi Senate: Hyde-Smith (R) vs. Colom (D) – Race downgraded to “Likely Republican” amid tight polling.
- Kansas Senate: Hamilton (D) vs. Marshall (R) – Polls show Hamilton leading by up to 9 points.
- House flips: Twelve Republican-held seats projected to shift to Democrats, with potential for 12-25 total gains.