Voters head to the polls Tuesday with the economy as the top issue, amid rising costs and mixed signals on wages and prices. Consumer prices have outpaced wage growth for six consecutive months, while gas prices exceed $4 per gallon—the highest level before an election in recent years.
Economic dissatisfaction remains widespread, with fewer than a third of Americans rating national economic conditions as “excellent” or “good” over the past five years. The midterm elections are seen as a referendum on recent economic trends, with voters assessing whether they are better off than two years ago.
Inflation and wages
Inflation reached 3.7% in September, while wages rose 3% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For the past six months, inflation has consistently outpaced wage gains, eroding purchasing power for many households. The gap between rising prices and stagnant wages has fueled frustration among voters, particularly as energy costs drive broader inflation.
Gas prices surge amid regional conflict
Regular gas prices averaged $3.12 per gallon at the start of the current administration’s term and $2.98 just before the war with Iran, according to AAA. Since then, prices have climbed above $4 per gallon, marking the highest pre-election levels in recent memory. Diesel prices, which power transportation and logistics, have surged to over $6 per gallon—an all-time high. Higher diesel costs typically ripple through the economy, increasing prices for goods and services dependent on fuel.
Mortgage rates and housing affordability
Mortgage rates topped 7% in January 2025 but briefly dipped below 6% before the Iran conflict. Since then, rates have climbed back above 7% for 30-year fixed mortgages and over 6% for 15-year loans, according to Freddie Mac. While elevated rates are not historically unprecedented, they compound affordability challenges when paired with high home prices. The combination of higher borrowing costs and stagnant wage growth has left many prospective buyers on the sidelines.
Voter sentiment and midterm stakes
A recent NBC News Decision Desk Poll ranked the economy as the top issue for voters, with a majority expressing deep frustration over economic conditions. The midterm elections are widely viewed as a referendum on the administration’s handling of the economy, with candidates from both major parties staking out competing visions for growth and affordability. Economic dissatisfaction has become a unifying concern across party lines, though solutions diverge sharply between policy proposals focused on domestic production, trade, and global engagement.