Democratic state Rep. James Talarico holds a 7-point lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the final New York Times/Siena College poll of the Texas Senate race. The survey, conducted from October 23 to November 1, found Talarico at 50% to Paxton’s 43% among likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A separate AtlasIntel poll released November 1 showed Talarico leading by 5.9 points, with 51.3% to Paxton’s 45.4% among 1,678 respondents surveyed from October 28 to November 1. The AtlasIntel poll reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Prediction markets also favor Talarico, with Polymarket and Kalshi assigning him approximately 76% and 74% chances of victory, respectively, compared to 26% for Paxton on both platforms.
Race Dynamics and Campaign Context
Talarico, a former public-school teacher and youth pastor, is seeking to become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas since 1988. His campaign has emphasized education funding, healthcare access, and economic opportunity, positioning him as a contrast to Paxton’s tenure as attorney general, which has been marked by legal controversies.
Paxton’s campaign has faced persistent scrutiny over his 2023 impeachment and acquittal on corruption charges, as well as ongoing federal investigations into alleged securities fraud. The Washington Examiner noted that Paxton’s “unsavory history” and “corruption tag” have been central themes in Talarico’s messaging.
Polling Trends and Historical Context
The latest polls represent a significant shift from earlier surveys. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll in April found Talarico leading by 8 points among registered voters, while a Quantus Insights poll in late October showed Paxton with a 1-point advantage. Other recent surveys have shown narrower margins, including a Trafalgar Group poll released October 31–November 1 that indicated a tie at 48%.
RealClearPolitics’ polling average, based on surveys from October 15 to November 1, places Talarico at 49% to Paxton’s 46.5%, a 2.5-point lead. The New York Times/Siena and AtlasIntel polls are the most recent high-margin results, though pollsters caution that margins of error and late shifts in voter preference can influence outcomes.
Campaign Responses and Election Day
Neither campaign has publicly commented on the latest polling results. Talarico’s campaign has focused on grassroots organizing and digital outreach, while Paxton’s team has emphasized his record on conservative issues, including opposition to abortion rights and support for border security.
Voting in Texas concludes Tuesday, November 5, with early voting already underway. The race remains one of the most closely watched contests in the 2024 midterm elections, with national implications for control of the U.S. Senate.