With one day remaining before the midterm elections, the Iowa U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson has tightened, with a prediction market showing Turek leading 52% to 48%. The race is now considered one of the most competitive Senate contests in the country, according to Turek’s campaign.
Turek, who has framed the election as an opportunity for “generational change” in Iowa, highlighted the race’s significance during a campaign stop in Le Mars. He emphasized his willingness to work with President Donald Trump on issues such as no tax on tips, overtime, and Social Security, while also aligning with Trump’s stance on driving private equity out of housing. “I don’t believe that any party has a monopoly on good ideas,” Turek said, underscoring his approach to bipartisanship.
Hinson, who is endorsed by Trump, has focused her closing message on affordability, citing concerns over rising costs for gas, groceries, housing, healthcare, and childcare. In a social media post, she stated, “Families are working hard and doing everything right, but their paychecks aren’t going as far as they should.” Turek echoed similar themes, posting that Iowans across the state have expressed frustration over being “priced out of the American Dream.”
The race is part of a broader battle for control of Congress, with Democrats seeking to flip the House and Senate. Iowa, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has seen shifting dynamics in recent years, including the potential for Democrats to gain ground in the governor’s race and multiple House seats. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008 and has backed Trump in all three of his presidential runs, including by 13 points in 2024.
Campaign Strategies and Key Issues
Turek has positioned himself as a “common-sense prairie populist”, drawing comparisons to former Sen. Tom Harkin. He has also expressed openness to collaborating with Trump, citing past bipartisan efforts in the Iowa legislature. “How will I work with him? In the exact same way that I’ve done in the Iowa legislature,” Turek said during a campaign event.
Hinson, meanwhile, has leaned into her record as a U.S. representative, emphasizing her work on economic issues and her alignment with Trump’s policies. Her campaign has highlighted her endorsement by the former president and her focus on addressing inflation and rising living costs. Both candidates have spent nearly 15 months traveling across Iowa’s 99 counties, meeting voters and addressing their concerns.
Election Dynamics and Voter Concerns
The race reflects broader national trends, with Iowa voters expressing concerns over the economy, inflation, and the impact of global conflicts such as the war in Iran. Democrats are hoping to capitalize on these issues to flip the Senate seat left open by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement. Republicans, meanwhile, are working to counter what they describe as a “blue wave” and maintain their majority.
Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, have shown Turek leading in the final days of the campaign, though the margin remains narrow. The outcome of the race could have significant implications for the balance of power in Congress and the political trajectory of Iowa. Polling and early voting data suggest a highly competitive environment, with both campaigns urging voters to turn out on Election Day.