Exit polls from CBS News indicate that President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has fallen to 38% in the 2026 midterm elections, the lowest recorded for any president during a midterm cycle. This marks a decline from his 45% approval in the 2018 midterms and is lower than the 44% ratings received by Presidents Joe Biden in 2022 and Barack Obama in 2010. Even George W. Bush, during his 2006 midterms amid the War on Terror, recorded a 43% approval rating.
Voters cited economic dissatisfaction and frustration with the cost of living as primary concerns, with roughly three-quarters of respondents expressing anger or dissatisfaction with the country’s direction. Only 18% of voters reported feeling satisfied, while 7% felt enthusiastic about the state of the nation. Polling data from NBC News further highlights that gas prices have risen 40% nationwide since February 2026, with sharper increases in key Senate battleground states like Iowa (55%), Nebraska (55%), and Kansas (53%).
Trump’s Influence and Campaign Efforts
Trump has repeatedly urged supporters to treat the midterms as a referendum on his presidency, despite not being on the ballot. His final campaign rally focused on the renovation of the Lincoln Reflecting Pool, a moment widely criticized for its perceived disconnect from voter concerns. Political analysts noted that his rhetoric often framed Democratic candidates as “the most extreme and dangerous slate in American history,” alleging ties to radical agendas such as open borders, tax increases, and energy policies. Trump also touted economic achievements, including record-high personal incomes and a historic low poverty rate, though voters appeared unconvinced.
Election Day Logistics and Concerns
Polling place issues were reported in New York’s Westchester County, where ballot scanners malfunctioned due to late programming changes. Officials confirmed that all valid votes would be counted under bipartisan oversight. Meanwhile, watchdog groups deployed tens of thousands of volunteers to monitor polling sites amid concerns over potential disruptions.
Congressional Dynamics and Historical Context
Midterm elections have historically served as a referendum on the sitting president, and this cycle is no exception. Roughly six in 10 voters cited Trump as a factor in their House vote, with Democratic voters overwhelmingly motivated by opposition to his policies. Polling models, including those by Nate Silver and Kalshi, suggest Democrats have a 95% chance of winning the House and an 80% chance of taking the Senate, though analysts caution that competitive races could still shift outcomes.
Republican Strategy and Potential Outcomes
GOP insiders indicate that if Democrats secure majorities, Trump may pivot away from legislative battles to focus on legacy-building and executive actions, including pardons and executive orders. Some allies suggest this could trigger partisan conflicts, with demands for investigations or impeachment proceedings. However, Trump’s administration has asserted greater preparedness to counter congressional inquiries compared to 2018.
Global and Domestic Economic Pressures
Trump’s tariffs and military actions, such as the war in Iran, have contributed to rising oil prices and inflation, exacerbating voter discontent. Analysts note that while Trump’s 2024 victory was partly attributed to promises of economic relief, inflation remains a persistent issue, with 53% of Republicans expressing dissatisfaction with the economy.
Voter Sentiment and Key Issues
The AP Voter Poll reveals that 60% of voters blame Trump’s policies for high prices, while 70% support stronger congressional checks on the presidency. Top concerns include cost of living, government corruption, and the state of democracy. Early voting surpassed 59 million ballots, with turnout expected to remain high.
What’s Next
Results are expected to unfold throughout Election Day and into the evening, with competitive races in both chambers potentially determining the balance of power in Washington.