Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek defeated Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, NBC News and the Associated Press projected Tuesday night. Turek led Hinson 50.9% to 46.1% with over 90% of precincts reporting, marking the first time a Democrat has won a Senate seat in Iowa since 2008.
The race was called at 11:35 p.m. ET by the AP, capping a tightly contested contest that saw both candidates trade leads in final polls. Turek, a three-time Paralympic gold medalist and Iowa state legislator, will replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, who announced in September 2025 she would not seek re-election. Hinson, a former news anchor and three-term U.S. House member, had been endorsed by former President Donald Trump and Sen. Ernst.
Economic concerns and policy shifts shape outcome
Turek’s victory came amid voter frustration over rising fuel and agricultural costs, which sources attributed to the ongoing war in Iran and Trump administration trade policies. Hinson, who initially positioned herself as a staunch Trump ally, faced criticism for her votes supporting the administration’s trade war and Iran policies. In late September, she announced her support for ending the war in Iran, a stance she had previously opposed in congressional votes.
Turek, who campaigned as a “prairie populist,” emphasized economic relief for Iowans, including suspending the state gas tax and expanding rural healthcare access. His campaign received endorsements from former President Barack Obama and former Sen. Tom Harkin, the last Democrat to hold Iowa’s Senate seat. Hinson, meanwhile, sought to distance herself from Trump’s unpopular policies while maintaining alignment with his base, arguing she would “push back” on the president when necessary.
Competitive race reflects broader national trends
The Iowa Senate race was rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, reflecting the state’s shifting political landscape. While Iowa has trended Republican in recent years—Trump won the state by 13 points in 2024—voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions created an opening for Democrats. Hinson’s attempt to balance loyalty to Trump with appeals to independent voters proved insufficient to overcome Turek’s focus on pocketbook issues.
Key policy contrasts
- Healthcare: Turek criticized Hinson’s support for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he argued would reduce Medicaid spending by nearly $1 trillion. Hinson countered that her record in the House demonstrated bipartisan work on local issues.
- Agriculture: Turek was endorsed by the Iowa Farmers Union for his opposition to agricultural consolidation, while Hinson faced scrutiny over her votes supporting Trump’s tariffs, which hurt Iowa farmers.
- Trade and Iran: Turek called for suspending the gas tax and ending the war in Iran to lower costs, while Hinson’s late shift on the war did not fully mollify voters concerned about economic pressures.
Reactions and implications
Turek’s win gives Democrats their 51st Senate seat, a critical gain in their effort to secure a majority. The result follows a series of competitive races in traditionally red states, including a projected Democratic victory in Iowa’s gubernatorial race. Hinson’s defeat marks a notable shift in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in 16 years.
Turek will be sworn in for a six-year term in January 2027, replacing Ernst, who was first elected in 2020 after defeating Harkin. The race’s outcome underscores the role of economic anxiety in shaping electoral outcomes, even in states with strong Republican leanings.