Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan was declared the winner of the state’s 2026 Senate race on Wednesday, defeating Republican challenger Michele Tafoya, according to projections from multiple major news organizations. The Associated Press called the race for Flanagan just after midnight, with 54.36% of the vote counted at the time of the projection. Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster, had been endorsed by former President Donald Trump in mid-October.
The race was closely watched as one of the few potential pickup opportunities for Republicans in a state that has not elected a GOP senator since 2002. Flanagan, a progressive Democrat, will succeed Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who did not seek reelection. The seat remained in Democratic hands following the victory.
Key Results and Context
Flanagan’s win came after a campaign that emphasized progressive policies, including support for Medicare for All. Tafoya, who ran as a political outsider, campaigned on restoring accountability in response to a multimillion-dollar daycare fraud scandal that has drawn federal scrutiny. The scandal, which involved allegations of fraudulent businesses, prompted the Trump administration to establish an anti-fraud task force led by Vice President JD Vance.
The race unfolded against the backdrop of heightened federal enforcement in Minnesota, including Operation Metro Surge, a crackdown on immigration that resulted in the fatal shootings of two Minnesota residents in Minneapolis in January. The state’s investigation into the shootings noted that the federal government stopped sharing evidence in July. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actions in the state became a central issue in the campaign, with Flanagan calling for reforms to the immigration system and Tafoya positioning herself as a critic of the administration’s handling of the fraud scandal.
Campaign Dynamics and Polling
Flanagan led Tafoya in every poll leading up to Election Day, though her margin never exceeded 5 points. By mid-October, the Cook Political Report shifted the race in the GOP’s favor, and prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket gave Flanagan a nearly 90% chance of winning. Tafoya distanced herself from Trump’s rhetoric on immigration, stating in October that her focus was on Minnesota voters. “There is one endorsement that I care about, and that is the one that happens on Nov. 3,” she said. “Truly, this is about Minnesota.”
The race also took place amid broader political tensions, including President Trump’s tariff policies, which contributed to higher costs of living and fuel prices in the state. The Trump administration’s immigration policies, including the Iran war and tariffs, were cited as factors that may have influenced voter sentiment in the lead-up to Election Day.
Reactions and Next Steps
Flanagan’s victory ensures Democrats retain control of the seat, closing one of the few pickup opportunities for Republicans in the 2026 cycle. The outcome reflects the state’s Democratic lean, despite Trump’s 2024 victory in Minnesota by a 4-point margin. Flanagan will be sworn in as Minnesota’s junior senator in the next congressional session.