Democratic challengers Christina Bohannan and Sarah Trone Garriott won closely contested House races in Iowa, flipping two Republican-held seats in the state’s 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, according to projections by the Associated Press and CBS News.
Bohannan defeated incumbent Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) with 53.5% of the vote to Miller-Meeks’s 42.8%, while Trone Garriott unseated Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) with 54.6% to Nunn’s 45.4%. The results were called early Wednesday morning as vote counts neared completion. The Associated Press and CBS News projected both races based on 90% and 100% of precincts reporting, respectively.
Both races were among the most competitive in Iowa this election cycle, with forecasters shifting expectations in favor of Democrats as November approached. The outcomes mark the first time Democrats will represent Iowa in Congress since Nunn’s 2022 victory over a Democratic incumbent in the 3rd District.
Key Vote Margins and Historical Context
Miller-Meeks, who first won her seat in 2020 by just six votes—one of the narrowest margins in U.S. House history—faced Bohannan in three consecutive elections. Bohannan’s victory this year followed a 10.7-point swing from Miller-Meeks’s 2022 win, when the incumbent won by roughly 20,000 votes. The 2020 and 2024 races both required weeks of recounts due to the razor-thin margins.
In the 3rd District, Nunn had won his 2022 race by about 4 points, a margin he matched in his defeat this year. Trump carried both districts by roughly 4 points in 2024, underscoring the competitive nature of the races.
Policy and Campaign Dynamics
Bohannan, a University of Iowa law professor and former state representative, centered her campaign on affordability and economic concerns, particularly the impact of diesel prices and fertilizer costs on Iowa’s agriculture sector. Miller-Meeks, who had served in Congress since 2021, faced criticism from Republicans for distancing herself from President Donald Trump, including a vote in September to limit Trump’s war powers regarding Iran. In a statement following that vote, Miller-Meeks said, “I will not vote to keep our soldiers in an open-ended war, with Iowans paying too much at the pump.”
Trump campaigned in Iowa late in the cycle but skipped Miller-Meeks’ district, and the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House GOP leaders, halted spending in the 1st District in mid-October, signaling waning confidence in the race.
In the 3rd District, Trone Garriott, an ordained Lutheran pastor and former state senator, ran on a platform emphasizing local issues, including education and healthcare, while Nunn’s campaign focused on cultural and legislative battles, such as opposing biological males competing in women’s sports. Trone Garriott had previously flipped a Republican-held state Senate seat in 2020 and successfully defended her seat in 2024 despite Trump carrying her district.
Election Administration and Recounts
The 2020 and 2024 races in Iowa’s 1st District were both decided by extremely narrow margins, leading to mandatory recounts that delayed final certification. Election officials in both counties confirmed the results after thorough reviews, with no evidence of widespread irregularities reported.
Implications for National Politics
The flips in Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Districts reduce the Republican House majority and highlight shifts in voter priorities, particularly on economic concerns and cultural issues. The races were among three competitive House contests in Iowa this cycle, alongside tight battles for governor and U.S. Senate.
Nunn had considered a run for governor but was encouraged by Trump and GOP leaders to remain in his congressional race to maximize Republican chances of retaining the seat. His defeat, along with Miller-Meeks’, signals potential vulnerabilities for House Republicans in agriculture-heavy swing states heading into future elections.