Final polling averages in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections underestimated Democratic support in several high-profile races, according to comparisons of RealClearPolling’s averages with Associated Press results. Democrats secured victories in contests where polls favored Republicans, including the Texas governor’s race and South Carolina’s Senate election, while also outperforming expectations in races like Georgia’s governor’s contest.
Polling errors in key races
Comparisons of RealClearPolling’s final head-to-head averages with certified results show that Republican candidates led in polls but lost in the Texas governor’s race, where Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Greg Abbott, and South Carolina’s Senate race, where Democrat Annie Andrews prevailed over Darline Graham Nordone. In Georgia’s governor’s race, polling averages identified the Democratic winner but substantially understated the final margin of victory.
Expert analysis on polling discrepancies
Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, noted that discrepancies between polling and election outcomes can stem from late-breaking developments or methodological limitations in polling. “Whenever there is a discrepancy between the outcome and what the polls were suggesting, there is a possibility for late-breaking developments that account for that,” Panagopoulos said. “There’s also the possibility that the polls missed the mark in some way.”
Impact on election forecasting and party strategy
Polling data influenced where political parties allocated resources and how forecasters assessed control of Congress ahead of Election Day. Democrats gained seats in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, and South Carolina, securing a Senate majority. The polling errors raise questions about turnout modeling and voter preference tracking in future elections.
Ongoing vote counts and preliminary findings
While final ballots are still being counted in several states, the preliminary comparisons highlight a pattern of underestimating Democratic support across multiple races. Analysts caution that these findings remain provisional until all votes are certified.