Democrats' gains in state legislatures and governor’s mansions during the 2024 midterms have brought the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) within striking distance of taking effect. The compact, which requires participating states to award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, currently includes 222 electoral votes—28 short of the 270 needed to activate. Five battleground states—Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6)—could push the total to 283 if they join, pending potential legal challenges.
The NPVIC has been in development for over two decades, with 18 states and Washington, D.C. already signed on. While the compact does not abolish the Electoral College, it would ensure that the presidential candidate winning the most votes nationwide secures the presidency, regardless of state-by-state outcomes.
Key Developments
Legislators in multiple states have signaled renewed urgency to advance the compact. In Michigan, Democratic state Rep. Carrie Rheingans told the New York Times that the party’s midterm momentum could accelerate the process. Similarly, Kelda Roys, a Democratic member of the Michigan House, stated that the compact would be a priority in the upcoming legislative session. Advocates argue that the current system disenfranchises voters in non-swing states, where outcomes are often predetermined.
How the Compact Works
Under the NPVIC, participating states agree to cast their electoral votes for the national popular vote winner once the compact reaches 270 electoral votes. The agreement remains dormant until that threshold is met. Proponents, including Patrick Rosenstiel of the advocacy group National Popular Vote, contend that the system would make every voter politically relevant in presidential elections. Rosenstiel, a Republican, has argued that the current Electoral College leaves 80% of voters without meaningful influence in non-competitive states.
Potential Challenges
The compact faces legal and political hurdles. Opponents argue that it circumvents the constitutional process for amending the Electoral College, which requires congressional approval. Some legal scholars contend that the compact violates the Compact Clause of the U.S. Constitution, which mandates congressional consent for interstate agreements. Others warn that the compact could trigger constitutional challenges if activated without federal approval.
Long-Term Implications
If the NPVIC takes effect, it would mark a significant shift in how U.S. presidential elections are conducted. Supporters believe it would increase voter participation and reduce the outsized influence of swing states. Critics, however, argue that it could diminish the role of smaller states in the electoral process and undermine federalism principles. The compact’s activation would also depend on the political composition of future state legislatures, as changes in control could lead to reversals.
Next Steps
The compact’s future hinges on legislative action in key states. In Pennsylvania, where Democrats now control the governor’s office and both legislative chambers, lawmakers may introduce bills to join the compact. Similar efforts are expected in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, where Democratic gains have strengthened the party’s position. The timeline for activation remains uncertain, as legal challenges and partisan debates could delay or derail the process.