The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its State of the Climate 2026 report on the opening day of the UN climate conference (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey, confirming that 2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years on record. The report, based on nine global datasets, found that the global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, with the past four years—2023 through 2026—occupying the top four warmest years ever recorded.
Record-breaking El Niño and accelerating climate impacts
The report attributes the elevated temperatures to a record-strength El Niño, which has intensified since August 2026 and is expected to persist into early 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that El Niño is releasing stored ocean heat, amplifying global warming effects. The phenomenon is described as supercharging weather patterns, contributing to exceptional global temperatures, melting ice, and rising sea levels.
Key climate indicators reach unprecedented levels
The WMO report highlights several record-breaking climate indicators for 2026:
- Global mean sea level reached a new high, driven by melting glaciers and thermal expansion of seawater.
- Ocean surface temperatures set monthly records throughout the year.
- Glaciers lost over 400 gigatonnes of ice in 2025, equivalent to 1 mm of sea-level rise—enough to fill five Olympic-sized pools every second of the year.
- Freshwater storage has declined since 2014 due to droughts and glacial retreat.
Health and humanitarian concerns intensify
The World Health Organization (WHO) has classified the health impacts of extreme heat and El Niño as a global health emergency for the first time. Increased temperatures, droughts, and heavy rainfall are expected to exacerbate heat-related illnesses, air quality degradation, and energy crises, disproportionately affecting low-income communities. Alicia White, founder of Project Petals, emphasized that under-resourced neighborhoods will bear the brunt of these effects.
Policy implications ahead of COP31
The report serves as a critical backdrop for climate negotiations at COP31, where world leaders are expected to discuss emissions reductions, climate finance, and adaptation strategies. The data underscores the urgency of meeting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, with 2026 projected to exceed this threshold for the second consecutive year after 2024.
Scientific consensus on human-driven warming
WMO officials stressed that the heat trapped by greenhouse gases is manifesting in rising ocean temperatures, melting ice, and sea-level rise. John Kennedy, WMO Head of Climate Information, noted, “Every indicator here is telling the same story. We're seeing the heat trapped by greenhouse gases is showing up in the ocean, in the atmosphere, in the melting of ice and the rising of sea levels.”
Long-term projections and risks
The report warns that the El Niño-driven warming will continue to influence global climate patterns well into 2027, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods, and storms. Scientists caution that these trends signal a new era of climate extremes, with human costs rising alongside environmental degradation.
The findings reinforce calls for accelerated climate action, including faster emissions cuts, a just transition from fossil fuels, and increased support for vulnerable nations to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts.