A series of storms is set to impact Southern California beginning Friday, November 13, bringing rain, high surf, and coastal flooding risks through early next week. Forecasters warn of moderate to significant impacts in coastal communities, including beach erosion and shallow flooding of normally dry areas.
Immediate impacts and warnings
The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a high surf advisory for Los Angeles County beaches through Tuesday, with waves expected to reach 25 feet on Friday and 35 feet on Saturday. A winter storm warning is also in effect for California’s Sierra Nevada, including the Greater Lake Tahoe area and Mammoth Lakes, where up to 2 feet of snow is possible at the highest elevations through Saturday. Wind advisories cover more than 5 million people across parts of Oregon, Nevada, and California, with gusts up to 90 mph along ridges and 65 mph in some inland areas.
Rainfall and flooding risks
While rainfall totals in Southern California are forecasted to range between a quarter-inch to an inch by Saturday, meteorologists caution that minor flood advisories remain possible. The NWS in Oxnard noted that moderate coastal flooding impacts are anticipated, particularly in Los Angeles County beaches on Saturday, with risks of beach erosion and shallow flooding of walkways. Forecasters emphasize that heavier rain at times cannot be ruled out, despite the generally lighter expected totals.
Wind and surf conditions
Gusty southwest to northwest winds are expected to persist through Friday, with sustained speeds around 20 mph and possible gusts up to 35 mph across inland Los Angeles County. The high surf advisory is driven by two large swells, with the first arriving Friday and lasting through Saturday, followed by a second swell expected Monday. Coastal flooding is also possible in the Bay Area during high tide on Friday.
Long-term outlook and El Niño influence
Meteorologists note that this storm pattern aligns with a record El Niño, which increases the likelihood of above-normal precipitation for January through March in Southern California, with a 60% to 70% chance of wetter conditions. However, experts caution that El Niño does not guarantee extreme outcomes, as three of the last four winters in Southern California have seen above-normal rain, regardless of El Niño strength. Julie Kalansky, deputy director for the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego, stated that while El Niño tilts the odds toward a wetter winter, it does not dictate the outcome definitively.
Regional variations
The storms will bring heavy snow to the Sierra Nevada, with Truckee and Lake Tahoe communities facing winds up to 45 mph and ridges experiencing gusts up to 90 mph. In contrast, Southern California’s rainfall is expected to be lighter but persistent, with scattered showers already moving into the region Thursday. The Colorado Rockies are also forecasted to receive snow on Saturday, extending the storm’s reach across the West.
Preparations and advisories
Residents in coastal and mountainous areas are urged to stay informed through local NWS updates and to prepare for potential power outages, road closures, and hazardous travel conditions. The high surf and coastal flooding risks are particularly pronounced during king tides, which are expected around Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Martin Luther King Jr. Day, further elevating concerns about shallow flooding in low-lying coastal neighborhoods.