Key Findings
A new study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) confirms that human-caused climate change made the January 2024 heatwave in southeastern Australia five times more likely and 1.6°C hotter than it would have been without global warming. The analysis, published this week, examined temperatures across South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and Tasmania between January 7 and 9.
The heatwave, the most severe since the 2019-20 Black Summer fires, saw temperatures exceed 40°C for multiple days, triggering devastating bushfires in Victoria that destroyed nearly 900 buildings and killed one person.
Scientific Consensus
The study found that, prior to climate change, such extreme heat events occurred roughly four times per century. Today, they are expected to recur every five years under current warming trends. The analysis also determined that the La Niña weather pattern, which typically cools temperatures, only slightly mitigated the heatwave's intensity by 0.3–0.5°C.
Expert Reactions
Climate scientist Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University emphasized the growing frequency of extreme heat: "We know heatwaves are extreme events, but they’re no longer rare." She warned that heatwaves cause more deaths in Australia than all other natural hazards combined, often due to prolonged exposure exacerbating underlying health conditions.
Perkins-Kirkpatrick also criticized cultural attitudes toward heat, stating, "The mentality of ‘suck it up, she’ll be right’ doesn’t work anymore. The heat is getting worse, and there’s a limit to what we can physically cope with."
Human and Environmental Impact
The heatwave fueled fast-moving bushfires, including the Natimuk fire in Victoria, which destroyed hundreds of homes. The fires burned 400,000 hectares of land, highlighting the increasing risk of climate-driven disasters.
In South Australia, residents sought relief by jumping into water to escape the 43°C heat, underscoring the immediate public health risks of such events.
Future Projections
If global warming continues on its current trajectory, southeastern Australia could face similar heatwaves with even greater frequency and intensity. The WWA report underscores the urgent need for climate adaptation measures to protect communities from escalating extreme weather.