Saudi Arabia has ordered the United Arab Emirates to withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen within 24 hours, following a Saudi-led airstrike on UAE-backed separatists. The UAE announced its withdrawal on December 30, 2023, after Saudi Arabia backed a demand from Yemen’s presidential council. The move highlights growing tensions between the two Gulf allies over Yemen’s future.
Immediate Action & Core Facts
The UAE’s withdrawal from Yemen comes amid a Saudi-backed demand for its forces to leave the country. The BBC reported that the UAE’s decision followed a Saudi-led airstrike on a weapons shipment for UAE-backed separatists in the southern port of Mukalla. The incident underscores a deepening rift between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over their respective strategies in Yemen.
Deeper Dive & Context
Shifting Alliances and Regional Strategy
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have historically aligned on many regional issues, but their approaches to Yemen have diverged. While Saudi Arabia has backed the Yemeni government, the UAE has supported the Southern Transitional Council (STC) based in Aden. The STC’s recent gains in December 2023 reportedly heightened Saudi concerns, leading to the demand for UAE forces to withdraw.
Broader Implications for Regional Dynamics
Analysts suggest that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is recalibrating his regional posture, moving away from alignment with Israel and the U.S. and toward Turkey and Qatar. This shift reflects a strategic bet that Iran’s influence will endure, requiring Saudi Arabia to hedge its bets with alternative partners. The UAE, meanwhile, has deepened its ties with the U.S. and Israel, particularly through the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain in 2020.
Impact on the Abraham Accords
The growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE raises questions about Riyadh’s potential future role in the Abraham Accords. While Saudi Arabia has long been seen as a possible key addition to the normalization framework, its recent strategic shifts suggest it may prioritize alternative alliances. The UAE, by contrast, has solidified its position as a key U.S. partner in the region, further distancing itself from Saudi Arabia’s evolving stance.
Long-Term Consequences
The withdrawal of UAE forces from Yemen could reshape the conflict’s trajectory, particularly if Saudi Arabia and the UAE continue to pursue divergent policies. The move also signals broader geopolitical realignments in the Middle East, where traditional alliances are being tested by shifting priorities and regional power dynamics. The U.S. and Israel will likely monitor these developments closely, as they could influence future security and diplomatic strategies in the region.