The latest Guardian Essential poll shows One Nation’s primary vote at a record high of 22%, while the Liberal-National Coalition’s support drops to 25% and Labor’s falls to 31%. The surge in One Nation’s support comes amid growing unrest within the Coalition, including potential leadership challenges and internal divisions.
Immediate Action & Core Facts
One Nation’s support has risen sharply, with the latest poll showing 22% primary vote—up five points from December. The Coalition’s vote stands at 25%, while Labor’s has dropped to 31%, down three points from last month. The Greens polled at 9%.
Meanwhile, public support for Labor’s response to the Bondi beach terror attack is strong, particularly on gun control and hate speech reforms, though many criticize Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s handling of the antisemitic shooting fallout. Opposition leader Sussan Ley faces a potential leadership spill as early as next week.
Deeper Dive & Context
One Nation’s Rising Appeal
Voters in regional and rural areas, including Tamworth, express frustration with the Coalition’s direction, citing issues like immigration, gun laws, and energy policies. Many former Coalition supporters now consider voting for One Nation, citing perceived shifts in the Liberal Party’s stance.
Steve Brown, a former Coalition voter from Victoria, said, "The Liberal Party has gone left of the middle, and One Nation are filling the void." Similarly, McKenzie, an 18-year-old coal industry trainee, plans to vote for One Nation, criticizing the government’s priorities on immigration and resources.
Gary Crimmin, a hunter, accused the National Party of failing to defend gun rights and freedoms, saying, "They’ve taken our freedom, they’ve taken our rights."
Coalition Turmoil
The Coalition faces internal strife, with Nationals splitting from the Liberals and leadership challenges from figures like Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor. Barnaby Joyce, a former Nationals leader, has joined One Nation, raising speculation about further defections.
Opposition leader Sussan Ley is under pressure, with her popularity declining amid leadership speculation. The latest poll reflects broader dissatisfaction with both major parties, benefiting One Nation’s rise.
Policy and Public Response
Labor’s antisemitism and gun reforms passed parliament amid strong public support, though Albanese’s handling of the Bondi attack aftermath remains contentious. The Guardian Essential poll was conducted between Tuesday and Friday last week, following these developments.
Other recent polls, including Demos (24%) and Newspoll (22%), also show strong support for One Nation, though Resolve recorded 18%. The surge in regional and rural seats has heightened concerns within the Coalition.
The latest developments highlight shifting voter sentiment, with One Nation capitalizing on discontent in both major parties.