President Donald Trump is privately weighing the political futures of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the ongoing war in Iran tests their leadership and the Republican Party's post-Trump future. The conflict, now in its fifth week, has become a key factor in shaping the 2028 presidential race, with Rubio emerging as a strong contender in recent straw polls and public opinion surveys.
Core Developments
- Rubio gained significant momentum in the 2028 Republican presidential nomination straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), securing 35% of the vote, up from 3% a year earlier. Vance, the front-runner, saw his support dip slightly to 53% from 61%. Other potential candidates polled in the low single digits.
- Trump's approval rating has fallen to 36%, its lowest since his return to the White House, amid rising fuel prices and disapproval of the Iran war. The outcome of the conflict could further influence the 2028 race, with Rubio's hawkish stance potentially bolstering his prospects if the war ends favorably, while Vance's cautious approach may resonate if the conflict drags on.
Deeper Context
CPAC Demographics and Policy Divides
This year's CPAC was dominated by older attendees, a shift from its earlier reputation as a lively gathering for younger conservatives. The demographic change has implications for policy debates, including the war in Iran, where informal surveys revealed a mix of opinions. Some attendees, like 20-year-old Wesley Pokluda, opposed the war, while others aligned with Rubio's hawkish stance.
Rubio's Rising Profile
Rubio's increased responsibilities, particularly around the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the Iran strikes, have elevated his public profile. Recent polls, including one from the Saint Anselm College Survey Center in New Hampshire, show Rubio surging in support for a hypothetical 2028 bid. His strong second-place finish at CPAC underscores his growing influence within the party.
Vance's Cautious Approach
Vance, a former Marine and vocal critic of U.S. entanglements in foreign wars, has taken a measured stance on Iran. His public comments have been limited, and Trump has acknowledged philosophical differences between them on the conflict. Vance's anti-war instincts could resonate with Trump's base if the war becomes prolonged, but his cautious approach may also limit his appeal among hawkish Republicans.
Trump's Succession Dilemma
Trump has reportedly asked allies and advisers about his potential successors, framing the choice as 'JD or Marco?' Some Republicans believe Trump is leaning toward Rubio, citing his strong performance during the crisis. However, the White House has dismissed speculation, emphasizing the administration's focus on fighting for the American people.
Long-Term Implications
The outcome of the Iran war and the 2028 race will shape the Republican Party's direction post-Trump. Rubio's hawkish stance and Rubio's rising profile could position him as a steady hand during crises, while Vance's anti-war stance may appeal to a segment of the base. The war's duration and its impact on Trump's approval rating will further influence the party's trajectory.