President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a second-term low, according to polling data analyzed by statistician Nate Silver. As of recent reports, Trump’s average approval stands at 39.9 percent, with a net approval rating of -16.7, marking a decline of nearly 5 percent in recent weeks. The drop coincides with the ongoing war with Iran and rising gas prices, which Silver attributes as key factors in the president’s waning support.
Polling Trends and Analysis
Silver’s analysis highlights that 46.7 percent of Americans now strongly disapprove of Trump, the highest figure of his second term. The decline has been sharp, with net approval dropping roughly 5 points in a short span. Silver notes that only 22 percent of Americans hold a strongly favorable view of Trump, signaling potential erosion among his base. Additionally, potential 2028 Republican candidates are beginning to distance themselves from the president.
White House Response and Polling Rebound
Despite the decline, a separate poll by the Daily Mail and JL Partners shows a slight rebound in Trump’s approval, rising to 46 percent after hitting a low of 42 percent earlier in March. The improvement coincides with reports that the White House is negotiating a peace deal with Iran, though no breakthrough has been confirmed. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that talks are ongoing and progressing well, maintaining Trump’s timeline for resolution.
Partisan and Independent Reactions
The polling data reveals stark partisan divides. 84 percent of Republicans approve of Trump’s performance, while only 34 percent of independents express approval. Among Democrats, disapproval remains high, with 66 percent disapproving of the president’s job performance. The strong disapproval rate (40 percent) also outpaces strong approval (24 percent), indicating lingering dissatisfaction even among some of his core supporters.
Implications for 2026 Midterms
With the 2026 midterms approaching, sustained voter unease could reshape the electoral landscape. The war in Iran and its economic fallout have failed to provide the typical political boost presidents receive during military conflicts. This dynamic may complicate Republican efforts to maintain or expand their congressional margins, particularly in competitive districts where independent voters often decide close races.