A new Emerson College Polling survey conducted March 29-31, 2026, among 1,125 likely voters reveals competitive races in Florida's upcoming gubernatorial and Senate elections. The poll, with a credibility interval of +/- 2.8 percent, highlights a narrow but real challenge for Democrats in flipping the governor’s mansion.
Part 1: Immediate Action & Core Facts
In the hypothetical general election matchup for governor, Republican Representative Byron Donalds leads former GOP Representative David Jolly—who left the party in 2018 and registered as a Democrat in April 2025—44 percent to 39 percent. Another 15 percent of voters remain undecided. A separate head-to-head between Jolly and Casey DeSantis shows an even tighter contest, with Jolly at 40 percent and DeSantis at 39 percent, while 19 percent are undecided.
In the Senate special election to fill Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s seat, Ashley Moody, appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis, leads all potential Democratic opponents. Against former National Security Council Director Alex Vindman, she leads by 8 points, and against state Rep. Angela Nixon, Moody leads by 11 points.
Part 2: Deeper Dive & Context
Republican Consolidation
Donalds dominates the GOP primary field with 46 percent support, well ahead of Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, who received 4 percent. Nearly four in 10 Republican voters say they are still undecided. The poll indicates that keeping Florida red in November will not be a significant challenge, despite national polling heavily favoring Democrats in 2026, where they hold a 6-point lead.
Democratic Field and Voter Divides
Among Democrats, the field is far less settled. Jolly leads the Democratic primary with 21 percent, followed by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings at 10 percent. The results fall within the poll’s margin of error, underscoring how fluid the race remains at this early stage.
Florida’s Political Shift
From 1964 through 2016, Florida was a swing state, backing the winning presidential candidate in every election except 1992. Since President Donald Trump’s 2016 victory and Governor Ron DeSantis’ rise in 2018, the state has shifted decisively to the right. The poll suggests that Florida is now a more reliable state for Republicans heading into the midterms than Texas.
Long-Term Implications
The poll indicates that while Republicans hold the edge, Democrats see a path to competitiveness in the general election. The tight margins in the gubernatorial race suggest that voter sentiment remains fluid, and the outcome could hinge on undecided voters and turnout efforts.