The odds of President Donald Trump being impeached and removed from office have reached a record high, according to prediction markets, following his recent threats against Iran. Kalshi’s market now shows a 27.5% chance of impeachment and removal before the end of his term, the highest since his re-election in November 2024. Meanwhile, the likelihood of invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from office has risen to 33.2%, according to betting markets.
Trump’s Threat Against Iran
On Tuesday, Trump issued a statement on Truth Social threatening to kill the entire Iranian population if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 p.m. ET. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” he wrote, though he later added, “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” The White House has not yet responded to requests for comment.
Impeachment and Removal Process
Impeachment requires a simple majority in the House, while removal from office necessitates a two-thirds majority in the Senate. Currently, Republicans hold the House majority, making impeachment unlikely. However, Democrats have suggested that impeachment could be pursued after the midterm elections if they regain control of the House. Removal by the Senate remains improbable due to the high threshold and partisan divisions.
Prediction Market Trends
Kalshi’s market, which tracks the likelihood of Trump’s impeachment and removal, hit its peak on Tuesday. The previous high was in April 2025, following Trump’s announcement of major tariffs. Another prediction market, Polymarket, shows a 65% chance of impeachment at any point before the end of his term.
Political Reactions
Critics, including Democrats and some Republicans, have called for Trump’s removal, citing his recent rhetoric and policy decisions. The 25th Amendment, which allows the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare the president unfit for duty, has also been discussed as a potential mechanism for removal. However, no formal steps have been taken to invoke it.
Long-Term Implications
The escalating rhetoric and political turmoil surrounding Trump’s presidency have raised questions about stability and governance. While prediction markets are not definitive, they reflect shifting public and political expectations. The outcome of any impeachment or 25th Amendment process would depend on congressional dynamics and public opinion.