Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have released their initial forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting slightly below-average activity but warning of potential high-impact landfalls. The forecast, released Thursday, estimates 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This represents about 75% of the long-term seasonal average, which typically includes 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The forecast also assigns specific landfall probabilities: a 15% chance for the U.S. East Coast (including Florida), a 20% chance for the Gulf Coast, and a 35% chance for the Caribbean. While the overall storm activity is expected to be lower than average, experts emphasize that even a single storm can cause significant destruction.
Key Factors Influencing the Forecast
The forecast is based on a delicate balance of climate signals, including Atlantic water temperatures and shifting Pacific climate patterns. The team acknowledges that their April prediction is preliminary and will be updated as the season progresses. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release its own outlook next month.
Preparedness Urged Despite Lower Forecast
Experts stress that residents in hurricane-prone areas should prepare as they would for any season. "It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you," said Michael M. Bell, a professor of atmospheric science at CSU. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between August and October.
The 2025 season, which brought 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, serves as a reminder that even below-average seasons can produce powerful storms. None of those storms made direct landfall in the U.S. last year, but the potential for impact remains a concern.