The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued warnings of life-threatening flooding in central Texas, with severe thunderstorms expected to bring heavy downpours, large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes. The threat persists into Monday as a low-pressure wave tracks along a frontal boundary.
Multiple counties, including Guadalupe and Gonzales, have activated emergency management agencies ahead of potential flash flooding. Authorities urge residents to avoid flooded roads and stay weather-aware, citing unstable riverbanks and culverts.
Kerr County, where deadly floods occurred last July, reports a heightened storm threat with rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour. The Guadalupe River, which saw catastrophic flooding on July 4, 2025, remains a focal point for concern.
Deeper Dive & Context
Current Weather Conditions
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for parts of Central Texas until 8 AM, with rain totals exceeding 1.5 inches in some areas. Wind gusts have reached 40 to 50 mph, though no hail has been detected. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms, primarily due to gusty winds.
Historical Context
The Guadalupe River has a documented history of rapid, deadly flooding. Last year’s July 4 flood killed 129 people and left 166 missing, including 27 campers and staff from Camp Mystic. The incident remains under scrutiny, with investigations ongoing.
Forecast and Preparedness
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The severe risk area extends into western San Saba, Mason, and Gillespie Counties. A cold front next weekend may bring additional rain.
Authorities emphasize safety protocols, including avoiding flooded roads and monitoring weather updates. Emergency agencies in affected counties are on high alert.