Europe could face severe jet fuel shortages within six weeks, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), raising concerns about flight cancellations and economic disruptions. Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, warned that Europe has 'maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left' if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed due to the ongoing Iran war. The strait, a critical artery for global fuel shipments, has been effectively shut for over six weeks, disrupting supplies to Europe, which relies on the Middle East for about 75% of its jet fuel imports.
Flight cancellations could begin soon, Birol said, as airlines may struggle to secure sufficient fuel. The IEA, which advises 32 member countries on energy supply and security, highlighted that the situation could trigger 'the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.' Higher fuel prices, already doubled since the war began, are being passed on to consumers, increasing airfare costs.
Aviation expert Justin Wastnage clarified that the 'six weeks' figure likely refers to commercial stock levels rather than an absolute shortage. Meanwhile, European officials are war-gaming potential shortages, with UK ministers estimating that less than 10% of flights might be canceled if supplies dry up. Emergency services, such as air ambulances, would be prioritized in worst-case scenarios.
The economic impact will be uneven, with developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America expected to suffer the most. Birol criticized Iran's 'toll booth' system for ships passing through the strait, warning that it could set a dangerous precedent for other key waterways. Airlines like easyJet have already reported significant losses due to rising fuel costs, further straining the industry.
Travelers face uncertainty as the summer holiday season approaches, with potential disruptions affecting thousands of passengers. Airlines have been advised to provide at least two weeks' notice for cancellations to avoid chaotic scenes similar to those during the COVID-19 pandemic.