The Pentagon has warned that clearing Iranian-laid mines from the Strait of Hormuz could take up to six months, prolonging disruptions to global oil supplies. The assessment, shared with the House Armed Services Committee, suggests that even if hostilities end, mine-clearing operations may not begin until the war concludes. Iran has declared the strait a 'danger zone' covering 1,400 square kilometers, while its parliament speaker insists the waterway will remain closed as long as the U.S. naval blockade persists.
Mine-Clearing Challenges
Iran is estimated to have deployed 20 or more mines, some using GPS-guided technology to evade detection. The U.S. has imposed its own blockade, further complicating efforts to reopen the strait, which normally handles one-fifth of the world's oil and gas traffic. The extended ceasefire has not resolved the standoff, with Iran seizing ships and the U.S. threatening military action against further mining.
International Response
The U.K. is preparing divers and autonomous mine hunters as part of a potential multinational coalition, while the Netherlands has deployed frigates. Germany remains hesitant, favoring a long-term ceasefire before committing to operations. European nations, including the U.K., have taken a diplomatic approach, angering U.S. officials who criticize NATO's lack of action.
Economic and Political Fallout
Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude exceeding $100 per barrel. Prediction markets suggest low confidence in the strait reopening by June, with a 59% chance of normal traffic by July. U.S. officials warn that the stalemate could extend beyond the ceasefire, with Iran demanding an end to the blockade before negotiations proceed. President Trump has tied peace to Iran halting its nuclear program and surrendering enriched uranium, conditions Iran rejects as 'bullying.'