The U.S. has significantly depleted its stockpiles of critical missile defense and attack munitions during the ongoing conflict with Iran, according to a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The analysis estimates that more than half of all THAAD interceptors and nearly half of Patriot interceptors have been used, along with substantial portions of Tomahawk cruise missiles and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSMs). The depletion raises concerns about the U.S. military's readiness for a potential future conflict with China over Taiwan, where similar munitions would be essential.
The CSIS report highlights that the U.S. has expended approximately 25% of its SM-6 missile stock and 50% of its SM-3 missile stock, as well as 25% of its Tomahawk and JASSM weapons. These munitions are crucial for both missile defense and long-range strike capabilities, particularly in a high-intensity conflict with a peer adversary like China.
Depletion of Key Munitions
The report estimates that the U.S. has used between 1,060 and 1,430 Patriot interceptors, which represent more than half of the prewar inventory. Additionally, the military has expended between 190 and 290 THAAD interceptors, which are critical for defending against ballistic missile threats. The depletion of these systems raises concerns about the U.S.'s ability to sustain prolonged operations in a future conflict.
Long-Term Rebuild Challenges
Even before the Iran war, U.S. stockpiles of precision munitions were considered insufficient for a large-scale conflict with China. The latest drawdowns have exacerbated this gap, as rebuilding these stockpiles could take years. The report warns that a future war in the Western Pacific would likely require sustained use of the same high-end missiles now being depleted, particularly for long-range strike and missile defense against a sophisticated adversary.
Strategic Implications
The depletion of these munitions has sparked debate about the strategic priorities of the U.S. military. Some analysts argue that the full-scale war with Iran has weakened America's ability to resist a future Chinese attack on Taiwan. Others suggest that the Pentagon could replicate its rapid development of new munitions, though this remains uncertain given the complexity of developing interceptors for fast-moving air targets.
The report underscores the need for the U.S. to reassess its munitions stockpiles and production capabilities to ensure readiness for potential future conflicts. The depletion of these critical assets highlights the broader challenges of sustaining prolonged military operations while maintaining deterrence against peer adversaries.