A new poll conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) from April 17 to 20 shows Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading both of his potential Republican opponents in the Texas U.S. Senate race. The survey of 1,018 likely general election voters found Talarico ahead of Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) by 3 percentage points (44% to 41%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX) by 5 points (46% to 41%). Both matchups fall within the poll’s margin of error of +/-3.3 points.
Talarico’s lead is driven by strong support among Black and Latino voters, as well as college-educated voters. He leads Cornyn by 10 points and Paxton by 14 points among college-educated voters. Meanwhile, Cornyn and Paxton draw their strongest backing from white, non-college-educated, and rural voters. Independents also favor Talarico, supporting him 51% to 29% over Cornyn and 53% to 28% over Paxton.
Cornyn and Paxton are set to face off in a May 26 runoff to determine the Republican nominee. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination earlier this month after defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in a competitive primary runoff. The race has drawn national attention, with President Donald Trump yet to endorse either Republican candidate. Talarico has raised $27 million in the first quarter, significantly outpacing Cornyn’s $9 million and Paxton’s lower total.
The race is shaping up as one of the most expensive in Texas history, with Democrats hopeful that President Trump’s declining approval ratings and backlash from Latino voters could create a favorable environment. However, no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, and past polls have often overestimated Democratic performance.