Airlines worldwide have canceled 2 million seats from May schedules in the past two weeks amid growing concerns over jet fuel shortages, driven by disruptions in the Middle East. The total number of available seats dropped from 132 million to 130 million between mid and late April, according to Cirium. The reductions come as jet fuel prices rose 1% last week to $181 per barrel, following a peak of $209 in early April, per the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Part 1: Immediate Action & Core Facts
Airlines including Qatar, Etihad, Emirates, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, and SAS have scaled back operations due to airspace closures, airport disruptions, and rising fuel costs. Lufthansa canceled 20,000 flights between May and October, while Air China cut domestic services. Spirit Airlines in the U.S. collapsed after the Strait of Hormuz closure, which handles 20% of global crude supply. Goldman Sachs warned that Britain is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on imports, limited refining capacity, and no strategic jet fuel reserves.
Part 2: Deeper Dive & Context
Refining Bottlenecks and Trade Frictions
Despite ample crude oil supply, refined product shortages—especially jet fuel, naphtha, and liquefied petroleum gas—are emerging. Global refined product stocks have fallen to 45 days of demand, down from 50, while crude oil inventories remain at 101 days. Naphtha stocks dropped 72% in the UAE and 37% in Europe since late February. Asia (excluding China) and parts of Europe are most exposed, with South Africa, India, Thailand, and Taiwan facing heightened risks.
Economic and Geopolitical Impact
The Strait of Hormuz closure has exacerbated supply chain disruptions, as 20% of global crude oil passes through the route. Goldman Sachs highlighted that Europe’s jet fuel supply is under 'extreme tightness', with the UK being the largest net importer in the region. Trade restrictions and refining delays are slowing the conversion of crude into usable fuel, worsening shortages.
Airlines’ Response and Passenger Impact
Major carriers have adjusted schedules to mitigate fuel shortages, with Gulf airlines and European operators most affected. Lufthansa’s cancellations are the most significant, while Spirit Airlines’ bankruptcy underscores the financial strain on smaller carriers. Passengers may face higher ticket prices, fewer flight options, and potential delays as the crisis unfolds.