Rubio overtakes Vance as 2028 favorite in prediction markets

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surpassed JD Vance as the most likely candidate to win the 2028 presidential election in prediction markets, according to Kalshi. As of Tuesday, Rubio leads Vance 18% to 17%, with Gavin Newsom close behind at 16%. However, Kalshi still shows Vance with better odds of winning the GOP nomination, leading Rubio 37% to 28%. Rival platform Polymarket gives Vance a slight edge at 19.6%, with Newsom at 16.7% and Rubio at 15%. Rubio's rise follows his widely praised appearance as White House press secretary, where he defended President Donald Trump’s Iran war policy while engaging the press with humor. The secretary joked about the media and referenced a viral video of him DJing at a wedding, earning laughs from reporters. Rubio’s performance contrasted with the typically tense interactions between the press corps and administration officials. Rubio’s vision for America also gained attention after a viral clip of him describing the nation’s 'story of perpetual improvement' during a White House briefing. He emphasized America as a place where anyone can achieve their potential regardless of background. The clip, shared by Rubio’s team, sparked speculation about a potential 2028 presidential bid. Rubio’s briefing also offered a glimpse into a post-Trump America First movement, with conservatives praising his disciplined and confident approach. Critics noted his evolution from a 2016 primary rival of Trump to a figure who now embodies a more mature version of the movement. Rubio’s tenure at the State Department and as a national security advisor has allowed him to blend governing credibility with Trump-era populism, a shift some Republicans see as a strategic adaptation.